MAD, the 'Mutually Assured Destruction' policy that
kept Russian and American nuclear missiles in their silos for the past half-century, is no deterrent to terrorists who have
no state against which to retaliate. And the MAD policy during the Cold War has left tens of thousands of nuclear weapons
potentially available to terrorists.
Today there is no accurate inventory of the world's nuclear arsenals or weapons-grade
fissile materials suitable for making nuclear weapons. Estimates have it, however, that there are currently more than 30,000
nuclear weapons in the world.
We simply don't know whether these weapons are adequately controlled, or whether
some could already have fallen into the hands of terrorists.
Osama bin Laden claims to possess nuclear weapons. His claim is feasible.
Former Russian Security Advisor Aleksandr Lebed testified before Congress in 1998 that some 80 to 100 suitcase-size nuclear
weapons in the one kiloton range are missing from the Russian arsenal. Shortly thereafter, Lebed was killed in a mysterious
helicopter crash.
Putin's government denies any missing Russian nuclear weapons, but Lebed's
claim has also been repeated by Alexey Yablokov, an advisor to former Russian President Boris Yeltsin.
Former US Deputy Energy Secretary Charles Curtis doesn't buy Kremlin assurances
either;
"We believe we have a full accounting of all of Russia's strategic weapons,
but when it comes to tactical weapons - the suitcase variety - we do not know, and I'm not sure they do, either."
Indeed, a Russian defense official in charge of nuclear weapons security isn't
sure at all.
Igor Valynkin, chief of the Defense Ministry's 12th Main Directorate, recently
told Izvestya that Moscow has ruled out joint security cooperation with the United States in securing nuclear arms.
"Russia's nuclear weapons storage facilities are not yet fully equipped with
modern means of physical protection," Valynkin said.
How's that again? The United States is spending fifty million dollars per
year to help the Russians improve security at about fifteen different nuclear facilities. And they are still too decrepit
to allow Moscow to participate in a joint nuclear security program?
And, in addition to the terrorist threat, Valynkin said there was always the
danger of someone from the inside getting access to, or detonating a nuclear warhead.
"Yes, the human factor is the weakest link in the nuclear weapons protection
system," Valynkin said. "But now we have developed a system that makes it possible to guard a facility without using sentries.
The system is very effective," he said. Guard without sentries?
What few guards the Russians do have, says Valynkin, undergo background screening,
although the screening "is not as straightforward as we would like."
"On the other hand, we are very careful in selecting the people who are going
to serve with us," Valynkin assures us. Tests are done to make sure "nobody with a narcotics or alcohol dependency is given
access to nuclear weapons," he said.
Evidently, the Russians have decided it isn't a good idea to give drunks and
potheads the keys to the nuclear arsenal. And, since there aren't enough sober Russians to fill out a whole shift, Moscow
claims it has a system to guard the nukes without sentries.
Maybe not. The Prime-Tass news agency reported on Tuesday that Russian had
opened nine criminal cases of wrongdoing and issued over 100 official warnings to employees in Russia's nuclear power industry.
Speaking at a parliamentary session, deputy prosecutor Vladimir Kolesnikov
warned the country's nuclear power plants are susceptible to man-made disasters because of aging infrastructure and poor maintenance
and repair.
According to a report from an Indian news website, (webindia123.com) Russia's
Prosecutor General's Office revealed numerous security threats to the country's nuclear power plants and is CONSIDERING checks
at power facilities as a remedy.
(I thought they had an a 'very effective system' to guard a facility without
using sentries?)
In a new book published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
and authored by Anthony Cordesman, Iran is pushing for nuclear weapons because it's conventional military forces are still
in tatters from the 1980's war with Iraq.
"They have a 340,000-man army, but 220,000 of them are 18-months-conscripts.
. . Its artillery is old and worn and its 1,600 tanks and about 300 airplanes are outdated even by Middle Eastern standards,"
Cordesman writes.
Cordesman's new book is titled "Iran's Developing Military Capabilities."
A former Defense Department official, Cordesman asserted that Iran has declined in conventional military capability since
the 1970s.
"Iran is a far less modern military power in comparative terms than it was
during the time of the shah or during the Iran-Iraq War," he said.
"Nevertheless, it is slowly improving its conventional forces, and it is now
the only regional military power that poses a serious conventional military threat to Persian Gulf stability."
Iran's military has moved from conventional to asymmetrical warfare and nuclear
weapons, Cordesman says. 'Asymmetrical warfare' is another name for stateless terrorism. In this model, Iran supplies weapons
and funding to terrorist groups to conduct operations against enemies of Iran that can't be traced back to Tehran for retaliation.
This probably comes as no surprise since we've heard it all before, but it
is another of those 'white noise' reports where you think, "My, that's terrible!", before moving on to the next news story.
Instead of moving on, let's dwell on it for a second or two and what it means
to us -- wherever we might live, and not just inside the United States.
Using asymmetrical warfare and nuclear weapons, Iran could strike any enemy,
anytime, anywhere, without fear of retaliation. No non-nuclear state would dare to counter-attack a nuclear Iran, and no nuclear
state could afford to risk a nuclear exchange without incontrovertible evidence that Iran was responsible.
Iran's nuclear patron is Russia, a state with more than 20,000 nuclear weapons
that it admits it can't keep track of.
Official US policy says that Iran cannot be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.
Israel has gone a step further, saying that Iran WILL NOT be allowed to develop nuclear weapons and has already built mock-ups
of Iranian nuclear facilities to use to train Israeli commandos to take them out.
Israel says categorically that it will bomb Iran's nuclear program out of
existence if necessary, and the United States has given tacit approval, with Dick Cheney saying recently that the US 'couldn't
stop' Israel if it decided to take out Iran's nuclear facilities the way it took out Saddam's in 1981.
So, Iran knows that the Israelis are planning to attack them. So do the Russians.
Both know the United States fully supports an Israeli attack.
Consider the following scenario for a moment. Iran is on the verge of a nuclear
breakthrough -- Israel is warming up its warplanes on the tarmac. To prevent the destruction of its nuclear capabilities,
Iran strikes Israel through Hezbollah or some other stateless entity.
Russia steps up to the plate to defend its multi-billion dollar investment,
warning the United States that an attack against Iran is an attack against Mother Russia. And to ensure that they mean it,
Russian troops join Iranian troops in a preemptive attack against Israel.
What would the United States do? What COULD the United States do? Risk a nuclear
holocaust in a nuclear exchange with Russia? The Mutually Assured Destruction doctrine still exists. We could utterly destroy
Russia, but Russia could utterly destroy the northern half of the Western Hemisphere in response.
And even if Washington were willing to take the risk, the rest of the world
would not.
Given the circumstances, in an event such as an attempted invasion of Israel
by Iranian and Russian forces, at best all the Israelis could hope for would be a series of indignant diplomatic protests
and a new round of debates at the UN. No nation on earth, including the United States, is likely to risk nuclear annihilation
to save the Jews.
The prophet Ezekiel writes of what he calls the Gog-Magog War. In Ezekiel's
vision, Israel will face an invasion, led by the Russians and Iranians, and backed up by the rest of the Islamic Middle East.
"Thus saith the Lord GOD; It shall also come to pass, that at the same time
shall things come into thy mind, and thou shalt think an evil thought: And thou shalt say, I will go up to the land of unwalled
villages; I will go to them that are at rest, that dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars
nor gates, To take a spoil, and to take a prey; to turn thine hand upon the desolate places that are now inhabited, and upon
the people that are gathered out of the nations, which have gotten cattle and goods, that dwell in the midst of the land."
(Ezekiel 38:11-13)
According to Ezekiel, the world reaction will be one of shock, but little
else.
"Sheba, and Dedan, and the merchants of Tarshish, with all the young lions
thereof, shall say unto thee, Art thou come to take a spoil? hast thou gathered thy company to take a prey? to carry away
silver and gold, to take away cattle and goods, to take a great spoil?" (v 12)
According to Ezekiel, the invaders will never make it past the mountains of
the West Bank. Note Ezekiel's description of what follows carefully:
"And I will plead against him with pestilence and with blood; and I will rain
upon him, and upon his bands, and upon the many people that are with him, an overflowing rain, and great hailstones, fire,
and brimstone." (Ezekiel 38:22)
The point is this. At no time in recorded human history, from the Babylonian
captivity until now has Israel been invaded by a Russian/Persian alliance. Until 1948, there had not been a nation called
"Israel" since Sargon II captured and destroyed the Ten Lost Tribes of Israel in 702 BC.
Ezekiel notes that this invasion is scheduled for the "latter days": "And
thou shalt come up against my people of Israel, as a cloud to cover the land; it shall be in the latter days . . ." (38:16)
Is it possible that this is coincidence? What are the odds that a Jew in Babylonian
captivity following the destruction of Israel and during the captivity of Judah, would GUESS that there would be in the latter
days a nation called 'Israel' -- when there hadn't been a nation called 'Israel' for 150 years?
To put it into perspective, it would be like someone living today writing
of the revival of the Confederate States of America at sometime in the distant future.
To keep the analogy going, our present-day prophet would also identify the
nations who would be opposed, at that future time, to the existence of the revived Confederate States of America.
Our present-day prophet would not only have to identify the ethnicity of the
CSA's future mortal enemies, but would also have to predict the invasion route. Do the invaders arrive on the shores of Alabama?
Or from the Gulf side and up the Mississippi Valley?
Ezekiel's prophecy, viewed from that perspective, would be breath-taking if
the only thing he got right was that at some future point in history, there would again be a place called 'Israel' inhabited
by the descendants of its original people and existing on its original piece of real estate.
But Ezekiel got it all right, from Russia and Persia, right down to describing
Israel as a 'land of unwalled villages'. (38:11) Israel is currently building an anti-terror 'wall' and any potential peace
settlement will undoubtedly result in the tearing down of that wall.
In Ezekiel's day, it was common for nation-states to build walls to protect
against invasion. But name for me another nation or state on the face of Planet Earth that has built a defensive wall to protect
itself from foreign invasion in the past hundred years?
Ezekiel made a point of mentioning Israel as a land of 'unwalled villages'
-- coincidence again? Let's list the 'coincidences';
Israel came into existence after 2,500 years of exile, at the same point in
history as the birth of the nuclear arms race in 1948, the birth of the European Union in 1948, the birth of global government
with the ratification of the United Nation's Declaration of Human Rights -- the UN's 'constitution -- also in 1948.
Ezekiel drew up the battle lines, accurately identified the main antagonists,
predicted the world would respond with diplomacy rather than military action, and described the effects of a nuclear detonation
that ends the invasion.
He noted that the invasion would come at a point in which Israel would be
recognizable as a 'land of unwalled villages'.
There is some dispute as to the timing of the invasion, whether it is pre-trib
or if it takes place after the Rapture, but the signs all indicate it could take place in the very near future.
Indeed, it is hard to envision a scenario in which Israel is NOT forced to
launch the preemptive attack on the Persian nuclear program, and it is equally hard to envision a scenario in which there
wouldn't be a joint Russian-Persian response to such an attack.
What are the odds, as I asked before, that all of this is sheer coincidence?
The answer is that they are incalculable, in any meaningful way.
Professor Stoner, a mathematician, calculated the odds of eight prophecies
being fulfilled in the life of Jesus at 10 to the power of 91. That would be a ten with 91 zeroes.
Stoner also said that a number, in order to have meaning, would have to be
capable of measuring something. Ten to the 91st power is about what Stoner calculates to be the number of neutrons in the
universe!
In light of all this, the Words of Jesus take on an even greater sense of
relevance to this generation.
"And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your
heads; for your redemption draweth nigh. . . Verily I say unto you, This generation shall not pass away, till all be fulfilled.
Heaven and earth shall pass away: but My words shall not pass away." (Luke 21:28,32-33)
Since we are discussing His Words at this moment, you can chalk that up to
another amazing 'coincidence'.
But what makes it 'amazing' is the fact there is any thinking human being
who can believe that it IS a coincidence. What makes more sense is the explanation set forth by the Psalmist;
"Thy Word is true from the beginning: and every one of Thy righteous judgments
endureth for ever." (Psalms 119:160)
Maranatha!